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| #723735 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 12.Oct.2014) TCDAT2 HURRICANE FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 500 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2014 After 1200 UTC, subjective T-numbers from and TAFB and objective numbers from the University of Wisconsin-CIMSS indicate that Fay has reached hurricane status with an initial intensity of 65 kt. This coincided with the presence of a closed mid-level eye feature in microwave imagery and a center surrounded by very deep convection. Fay is the fifth hurricane of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season. Given the strong shear and the expected interaction with a cold front, Fay will probably weaken below hurricane status during the next few hours and begin the expected extratropical transition. Fay is already embedded in the fast mid-latitude westerlies and is moving toward the east-northwest or 070 degrees at 22 kt. Fay should accelerate even further and turn more to the east. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope, and is a blend of the previous forecast and the Ocean Prediction Center input. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 34.7N 60.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 35.6N 56.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 36.0N 50.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 14/0600Z 35.0N 43.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 14/1800Z 33.5N 40.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila |
