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| #723849 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:05 AM 13.Oct.2014) TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 0900 UTC MON OCT 13 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE * ST. MARTIN * ST. BARTHELEMY * ST. MAARTIN * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * BARBUDA * ANTIGUA * ANGUILLA * ST. KITTS AND NEVIS * MONTSERRAT * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 60.9W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 60.9W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 60.5W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 17.4N 62.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.6N 64.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 20.2N 65.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 21.5N 67.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 23.8N 68.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 26.0N 67.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 29.0N 65.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 60.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
