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| #723908 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 AM 13.Oct.2014) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 1100 AM AST MON OCT 13 2014 Fay is well on its way to becoming a post-tropical cyclone or even dissipating within a frontal zone. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a cold front is located just to the west of Fay, and cold air stratocumulus clouds are wrapping around the western side of the system. In addition, deep convection is now displaced well to the northeast of what passes for a low-level center. The Florida State University cyclone phase evolution analyses indicate that Fay has a warm core, which is the reason why it is still designated as a tropical storm, but it won't be one for much longer. The initial wind speed is lowered slightly to 50 kt, following the decrease in the satellite intensity estimates. The storm is moving quickly eastward at about 25 kt as it is embedded in the mid-latitude westerly flow. Assuming it maintains a closed circulation, a continued eastward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 34.1N 52.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 33.7N 48.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 14/1200Z 32.9N 44.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 15/0000Z 32.2N 40.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 15/1200Z 31.8N 37.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 16/1200Z 32.0N 29.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
