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| #723914 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 AM 13.Oct.2014) TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 1100 AM AST MON OCT 13 2014 ...GONZALO STRENGTHENING WHILE IT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ON ANTIGUA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 61.9W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NW OF ANTIGUA ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM ESE OF ST. THOMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR ANGUILLA. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR ST. MARTIN...AND DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE. THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. MAARTIN HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR ST. MAARTIN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. MAARTIN * ST. MARTIN * ANGUILLA * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. MARTIN * ST. BARTHELEMY * ST. MAARTIN * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * BARBUDA * ANTIGUA * ANGUILLA * ST. KITTS AND NEVIS * MONTSERRAT * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.9 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GONZALO WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THIS AFTERNOON...AND BE NEAR OR OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ANTIGUA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY WHILE IT MOVES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...ANTIGUA REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 67 MPH...108 KM/H AND A GUST TO 88 MPH...142 KM/H. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 992 MB...29.30 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY....WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY. RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM DOMINICA NORTHWARD TODAY. SWELLS WILL REACH THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
