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| #724059 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:36 PM 13.Oct.2014) TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 800 PM AST MON OCT 13 2014 ...GONZALO STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES NEAR ANGUILLA AND ST. MARTIN... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 63.1W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM N OF ST. MARTIN ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM E OF ST. THOMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * ST. MAARTIN * ST. MARTIN * ANGUILLA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. BARTHELEMY * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * BARBUDA * ANTIGUA * ST. KITTS AND NEVIS * MONTSERRAT * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT...BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...AND EMERGE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC OCEAN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND GONZALO COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY WHEN IT IS LOCATED OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC OCEAN. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 20 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. ST. MAARTEN RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 39 MPH...63 KM/H...AND A GUST OF 64 MPH...104 KM/H. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD THROUGH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY. NOTE THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLS AND MOUNTAINS ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN INDICATED IN THIS ADVISORY...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER. RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM DOMINICA NORTHWARD AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND WILL REACH THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
