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| #724126 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 PM 13.Oct.2014) TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 1100 PM AST MON OCT 13 2014 ...GONZALO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO PASS NORTHEAST OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 63.4W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NNW OF ANGUILLA ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF ST. THOMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. MAARTEN HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR ST. MAARTEN WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES...AND ST. CROIX HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS AND NEVIS. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * ST. MARTIN * ANGUILLA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. THOMAS AND ST. JOHN IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. MAARTEN * ST. BARTHELEMY * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED BY NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.4 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GONZALO WILL PASS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC NORTH OF PUERTO RICO ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND GONZALO COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD THROUGH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
