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| #724279 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:57 AM 14.Oct.2014) TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 1100 AM AST TUE OCT 14 2014 ...GONZALO MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC OCEAN.... ...STRENGTHENING EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 65.2W ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 830 MI...1335 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... NONE DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.2 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GONZALO WILL MOVE CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC TODAY... AND REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TODAY...AND POSSIBLY BECOME A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE BY THURSDAY. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A NOAA BUOY LOCATED ABOUT 55 MILES...90 KM NORTH OF THE CENTER OF GONZALO REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 43 MPH...69 KM/H AND A GUST TO 52 MPH...83 KM/H. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA IS 973 MB...28.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH GONZALO ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THOSE ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO TODAY. SWELLS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
