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| #724802 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:01 AM 16.Oct.2014) TCDAT3 HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 1100 AM AST THU OCT 16 2014 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Gonzalo measured an SFMR surface wind of 135 kt, but this observation was not supported by the flight-level winds, which were only as high as 126 kt in the northeastern quadrant, or SFMR data in subsequent passes in that portion of the storm. The initial intensity is raised to 125 kt on this advisory based on a compromise between the flight-level and SFMR data, as well as satellite intensity estimates that range from T5.5/102 kt from SAB and T6.6/130 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT. Fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 12-24 hours while Gonzalo remains in a relatively light-shear environment and over warm sea surface temperatures. Some weakening is anticipated on Friday once the vertical shear begins to increase, but Gonzalo is not forecast to reach sub-26C water until about 48 hours. Therefore, the hurricane is expected to maintain major hurricane strength through the next 36 hours or so while it passes Bermuda, with more rapid weakening forecast after 48 hours. The official forecast is a little higher than the previous one during the first 48 hours to account for the updated initial intensity. This forecast is close to the SHIPS and LGEM guidance for the next 24 hours and then close to the intensity consensus thereafter. Gonzalo is still forecast to be a post-tropical cyclone by day 3 while it passes near Newfoundland, and at that point it should also be very close to taking on frontal characteristics. Gonzalo should dissipate by day 5 while it moves eastward over the north Atlantic. The initial motion is 005/6 kt. Gonzalo is moving a little slower than was previously forecast, which is having some downstream effects on the track forecast. There is very little cross-track spread among the model guidance, but nearly all of the track models are slower than the previous forecast. Gonzalo is moving northward to the east of a deep-layer trough over the eastern United States, and the hurricane should begin to accelerate north-northeastward ahead of this trough from this point forward. Since this acceleration is somewhat delayed, the updated NHC track forecast is a little slower than the previous one, and lies close to TVCA and a GFS-ECMWF blend. The post-tropical portion of the forecast has been coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 26.1N 68.6W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 27.5N 68.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 29.9N 66.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 32.6N 64.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 36.5N 62.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 46.5N 50.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 20/1200Z 52.0N 29.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg |
