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| #724865 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:36 PM 16.Oct.2014) TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 500 PM AST THU OCT 16 2014 ...GONZALO TURNS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... ...DAMAGING WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.1N 68.2W ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.2 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GONZALO WILL BE NEAR BERMUDA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GONZALO IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES...AND ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH GONZALO THROUGH TONIGHT. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY...BUT GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES NEAR BERMUDA. STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN BY LATE FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 942 MB...27.82 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA ON FRIDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN AT THE SURFACE...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN BERMUDA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER BERMUDA. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD. SWELLS WILL REACH THE REST OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BERG |
