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| #725034 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:58 AM 17.Oct.2014) TCDAT3 HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 1100 AM AST FRI OCT 17 2014 Gonzalo is under surveillance by a NOAA hurricane hunter plane and its eye is in the scope of the Bermuda radar. Maximum winds measured so far by the SFMR on board the plane are 104 kt, and on this basis the initial intensity is lowered to 110 kt. This slight weakening is in agreement with the fact that the eye on satellite is not as distinct as it was 12 hours ago, and the Dvorak t-numbers are decreasing. Although it appears that a gradual weakening has begun, Gonzalo is expected to be a dangerous Category 3 hurricane as it moves near or over Bermuda later today. After that time, increasing shear and cooler waters along the track of the hurricane should result in a faster weakening. Gonzalo is likely to transition into a post-tropical cyclone by 36 to 48 hours as it moves near or south of Newfoundland, and become fully extratropical thereafter. Radar and aircraft fixes indicate that the hurricane is moving toward the north-northeast or 025 degrees at 14 kt. Gonzalo should accelerate and turn to the northeast once it becomes completely embedded within the faster southwesterly mid-latitude flow ahead of a deepening trough along the east coast of the United States. The guidance remains tightly clustered, and There is no reason to deviate much from the previous NHC forecast which shows a powerful hurricane passing near or over Bermuda later today, and a post-tropical cyclone passing south of Newfoundland in about 36 to 48 hours. Significant coastal flooding on Bermuda is likely if Gonzalo continues on the current NHC forecast track. Although specific amounts cannot be forecast for Gonzalo, Hurricane Fabian produced an estimated 10 feet of storm surge when it moved over Bermuda as a major hurricane in 2003, and similar values could occur with Gonzalo. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 30.4N 66.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 32.6N 64.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 36.3N 62.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 41.5N 58.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 48.0N 49.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 20/1200Z 55.0N 25.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 21/1200Z...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila |
