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| #725116 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:00 PM 17.Oct.2014) TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 800 PM AST FRI OCT 17 2014 ...BERMUDA IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LARGE EYE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE GONZALO... ...DAMAGING WINDS AND A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED AGAIN AFTER THE EYE PASSES... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.2N 64.9W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR... * ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. PEOPLE SHOULD NOT VENTURE OUT INTO THE CALM PERIOD OF THE EYE SINCE STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL RETURN QUICKLY AFTER THE EYE PASSES TO THE NORTH OF BERMUDA IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED BY THE BERMUDA RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 32.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 64.9 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H. A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER BERMUDA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GONZALO IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER GONZALO MOVES PAST BERMUDA TONIGHT. FASTER WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON SATURDAY ONCE GONZALO MOVES OVER COOL WATERS. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 98 MPH...158 KM/H AND A GUST TO 134 MPH...215 KM/H WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT AN ELEVATED OBSERVATION SITE AT COMMISSIONER'S POINT BERMUDA. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 90 MPH... 145 KM/H AND A GUST TO 130 MPH...209 KM/H WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT AN ELEVATED OBSERVATION SITE AT ST. DAVIDS BERMUDA NEAR THE AIRPORT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM AN AMATEUR RADIO OPERATOR ON BERMUDA IS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME ON BERMUDA IN AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL PASSES NORTH OF THE ISLAND. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN AT THE SURFACE...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN BERMUDA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER BERMUDA. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...AND BERMUDA. SWELLS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
