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| #725200 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 AM 18.Oct.2014) TCDAT3 HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 500 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014 The eye of Gonzalo is no longer apparent in geostationary imagery, but an enhanced area of cold cloud tops is still noted near the center position. The initial intensity has been lowered to 90 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB and a blend of the latest ADT CI and final-T numbers. Steady weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours while Gonzalo moves across cooler waters. The cyclone will cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream by 24 hours and should be extratropical shortly after that time. Slow decay is forecast during the extratropical phase before the cyclone dissipates in about 4 days. The initial motion estimate is 030/19, as Gonzalo is embedded in southwesterly flow between a mid-level ridge to the southeast and a deep-layer trough moving offshore of eastern North America. Gonzalo should pass near or just southeast of Newfoundland in 24 to 36 hours and then move rapidly eastward across the north Atlantic until dissipation. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the left of the previous one through 36 hours due to a westward shift in the track guidance this cycle. After that time, the NHC forecast is largely an update of the previous one. The post-tropical portion of the forecast has been coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 34.7N 63.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 38.2N 60.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 44.2N 54.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 49.7N 44.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 20/0600Z 53.0N 31.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 21/0600Z 56.0N 3.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan |
