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| #725509 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 AM 19.Oct.2014) TCDAT3 HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 1100 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014 Despite traversing across sea-surface temperatures less than 10C, Gonzalo has been able to maintain convection near the center. A 0845 UTC AMSU overpass also revealed that Gonzalo still had a deep warm core that extended above the 200 mb level. Oil rigs in the southeastern quadrant have reported sustained hurricane-force winds during the past few hours, with oil rig VEP717 reporting a sustained wind of 85 kt more than 80 nmi from the center of Gonzalo. Since this report originated from a height of 130 meters, the initial intensity will remain at 75 kt for this advisory. The initial motion estimate is 055/45 kt. The global and regional models are in good agreement on Gonzalo turning east-northeastward during the next 12 hours or so, and then maintaining that motion over the far north Atlantic until the cyclone dissipates in 2-3 days. The official track forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models, and is near the latest forecast guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. Gonzalo is expected to become extratropical later today, and gradually weaken during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, post-tropical Gonzalo is forecast to maintain storm-force winds over the north Atlantic until the cyclone dissipates. The NHC intensity forecast is based on guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 49.0N 47.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 52.0N 39.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 20/1200Z 54.5N 23.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 21/0000Z 57.0N 6.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 21/1200Z 62.1N 2.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart |
