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| #726117 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 AM 22.Oct.2014) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014 400 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014 After the increase of deep convection noted earlier, thunderstorm activity associated with depression has leveled off, and recently cloud tops have warmed. Also, the tropical cyclone's presentation on the Sabancuy, Mexico radar imagery has become less organized. The current intensity of the system is held at 30 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the depression later this morning to check its intensity. The depression continues to be affected by southwesterly shear, but the dynamical guidance indicates some weakening of this shear within the next 24 hours. This should allow for some strengthening of the system over the warm waters of the eastern Bay of Campeche, prior to reaching the Yucatan Peninsula tonight. After weakening due to its passage across Yucatan, drier air associated with a frontal system and west-southwesterly shear are expected to prevent reintensification. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one. Since the system is quite small, it might be disrupted more than expected by its interaction with land -- and weaken or degenerate into a remnant low sooner than shown by the NHC forecast. The cyclone continues to move eastward, or 090/5 kt. A generally westerly mid-level environmental flow should carry the system across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the forecast period. The official track forecast is nudged only slightly to the south of the previous one, but is north of the multi-model consensus. It should be noted that due to the possible interaction with a baroclinic cyclone to the northeast in the latter part of the period, the track forecast becomes more uncertain by days 4 and 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 19.4N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 19.4N 91.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 19.3N 90.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 23/1800Z 19.1N 89.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 24/0600Z 18.9N 88.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 25/0600Z 18.5N 86.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 26/0600Z 18.5N 84.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/0600Z 18.5N 82.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch |
