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| #7292 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 PM 03.Sep.2004) TCDAT1 HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 40 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI SEP 03 2004 DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND SATELLITE INDICATE THAT FRANCES HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND REMAINS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 100 KNOTS BUT...BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...INSTRUMENT ON BOARD A NOAA AIRCRAFT...THE WIND FIELD APPEARS TO BE EXPANDING A LITTLE BIT. THIS NECESSITATES EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. THE HURRICANE HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS TO STRENGTHEN...IF AT ALL...WHILE MOVING OVER WATER. ALTHOUGH NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SHOW SIGNIFICANT STREGTHENING...THERE IS A SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR FRANCES TO RE-INTENSIFY SOMEWHAT AS IT PASSES OVER THE GULF STREAM AND APPROACHES THE FLORIDA COAST. AS ANTICIPATED...THE HURRICANE IS MOVING RIGHT ON TR ****ERROR: INCOMPLETE DATA 000 ABNT20 KNHC 031508 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1130 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2004 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE FRANCES...CENTERED ABOUT 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF ELEUTHERA ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...AND ABOUT 220 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA LOWER EAST COAST. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ALSO ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM IVAN...LOCATED ABOUT 745 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE OVER THIS AREA...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM IVAN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON IVAN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4. FORECASTER PASCH |
