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| #7294 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:49 PM 03.Sep.2004) TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI SEP 03 2004 ...OUTER SQUALLS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE FRANCES MOVING OVER THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...WEATHER SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE GRADUALLY... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH NORTHWARD TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH NORTHWARD TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.5 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES... 145 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND 200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA LOWER EAST COAST. FRANCES HAS BEEN WOBBELING BUT IN GENERAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY AND WILL BE NEAR THE FLORIDA COAST ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 959 MB...28.32 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 14 FEET ABOVER NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE EYE OF FRANCES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LAKE WATER LEVEL IS EXPECTED IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 7 TO 12 INCHES...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 20 INCHES... ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES. SWELLS GENERATED BY FRANCES WILL BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...25.9 N... 77.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 959 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA |
