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| #7299 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:58 PM 03.Sep.2004) TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092004 2100Z FRI SEP 03 2004 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 34.6W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 34.6W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 33.7W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 8.7N 37.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 8.7N 40.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 9.0N 43.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 9.8N 46.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 11.5N 53.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 13.0N 59.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 15.0N 64.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 8.9N 34.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z FORECASTER KNABB/PASCH |
