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| #7348 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 PM 03.Sep.2004) TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI SEP 03 2004 ...FRANCES SLOWLY APPROACHING GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... ...HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUE TO RAKE THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH NORTHWARD TO FERNANDINA BEACH. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST FROM BONITA BEACH EASTWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REAMINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. AT 11 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES ...110 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 150 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA. FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH ... 9 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND SOME ERRATIC MOTION CAN BE EXPECTED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE LARGE CORE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL BE VERY NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST BY LATE SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES FRANCES A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES...175 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 81 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED ON NORTH ELEUTHERA ISLAND. DURING THE PAST HOUR...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AT HOPETOWN ON ABACO ISLAND REPORTED WIND SUSTAINED WINDS OF 69 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 81 MPH AT HOPETOWN. THE SETTLEMENT POINT C-MAN STATION ON WESTERN GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 59 MPH WITH A GUST TO 75 MPH...WHILE A SUSTAINED WIND OF 44 MPH WITH A GUST TO 52 MPH WERE REPORTED AT THE LAKE WORTH FLORIDA C-MAN STATION. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES. A SHIP IN MARSH HARBOR RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 960 MB. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE EYE OF FRANCES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LAKE WATER LEVEL IS EXPECTED IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVEL CAN BE EXPECTED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 7 TO 12 INCHES...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 20 INCHES... ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES OVER THE BAHAMAS. SWELLS GENERATED BY FRANCES WILL BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...26.1 N... 77.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 960 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART |
