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#7411 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:06 PM 04.Sep.2004)
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092004
1500Z SAT SEP 04 2004

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 38.9W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 100SE 100SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 38.9W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.8N 38.1W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 9.2N 41.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 9.9N 44.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 10.6N 47.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 11.4N 51.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 13.0N 57.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 15.0N 63.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 17.5N 68.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 8.9N 38.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

FORECASTER PASCH