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| #7413 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:06 PM 04.Sep.2004) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2004 THE STORM CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES BUT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS RATHER RAGGED-LOOKING AT THE MOMENT. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS SYNOPTIC TIME...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 50 KT. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW LOOKS STRONG AND ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS INDICATE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF IVAN. THEREFORE STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BUT NOT AS STRONG AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST UNCOUPLED GFDL MODEL RUN. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS ESSENTIALLY WESTWARD AT AROUND 16 KT. THE STEERING SCENARIO FOR IVAN REMAINS UNCHANGED. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS LIKELY TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL TRACKS ARE A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF...AND A LITTLE FASTER THAN...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/1500Z 8.9N 38.9W 50 KT 12HR VT 05/0000Z 9.2N 41.3W 55 KT 24HR VT 05/1200Z 9.9N 44.5W 60 KT 36HR VT 06/0000Z 10.6N 47.8W 65 KT 48HR VT 06/1200Z 11.4N 51.0W 70 KT 72HR VT 07/1200Z 13.0N 57.5W 80 KT 96HR VT 08/1200Z 15.0N 63.5W 90 KT 120HR VT 09/1200Z 17.5N 68.5W 100 KT |
