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| #7440 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:32 PM 04.Sep.2004) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2004 SATELLITE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON SHOW THAT IVAN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THERE IS A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT WRAPS PRACTICALLY ALL THE WAY AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER...WHICH USING THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE GIVES A DATA T NUMBER OF 3.5 OR 55 KT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IVAN WILL REMAIN IN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SO...CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY. A SWIFT...MOSTLY WESTWARD...MOTION CONTINUES. THERE ARE NO IMPORTANT CHANGES TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING BEHIND THE TRACK FORECAST SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. A STRONG RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THEREFORE ONLY A GENTLE BEND TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST...WITHOUT MUCH DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. BECAUSE OF THE TYPICAL TRACK FORECAST ERRORS AT 5 DAYS...THE CENTER COULD EASILY PASS SOUTH...OR NORTH...OF THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/2100Z 9.1N 40.8W 50 KT 12HR VT 05/0600Z 9.7N 43.3W 60 KT 24HR VT 05/1800Z 10.4N 46.6W 65 KT 36HR VT 06/0600Z 11.4N 49.8W 70 KT 48HR VT 06/1800Z 12.3N 53.0W 75 KT 72HR VT 07/1800Z 14.0N 59.5W 85 KT 96HR VT 08/1800Z 16.0N 65.5W 95 KT 120HR VT 09/1800Z 18.5N 70.5W 95 KT...INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA |
