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| #7449 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:53 PM 04.Sep.2004) TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2004 ...LARGE HURRICANE FRANCES REMAINS STALLED... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND BAHAMA...ABACO...BIMIMI AND THE BERRY ISLANDS. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z... THE HURRICANE WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST TO ST. MARKS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...ON THE WEST COAST...FROM ST. MARKS SOUTHWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE PENNISULA TO JUST SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY ON THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR FLORIDA BAY. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM WEST OF ST. MARKS TO PANAMA CITY. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED BY RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES... 80 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF PALM BEACH FLORIDA. FRANCES HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT THE HURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR SOON. ON THIS TRACK...THE STRONGEST WINDS SURROUNDING THE LARGE EYE OF FRANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES...120 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. STRONG WINDS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND WILL BE SPREADING INLAND...WHERE WARNINGS FOR HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN STILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE WEST SIDE OF ISLANDS OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE PATH OF FRANCES. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD REACH 20 INCHES IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...TO NEAR 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT. SWELLS GENERATED BY FRANCES ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...26.9 N... 79.3 W. EXPECTED MOVEMENT...BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 962 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA |
