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| #7516 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 PM 04.Sep.2004) TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 45 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2004 ...LARGE HURRICANE NEARS FLORIDA EAST COAST... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND BAHAMA...ABACO...BIMIMI AND THE BERRY ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...ON THE WEST COAST...FROM ST. MARKS SOUTHWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE PENNISULA TO JUST SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY ON THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM WEST OF ST. MARKS TO PANAMA CITY. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA. FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL HAS ALREADY MOVED OVER PORTIONS OF PALM BEACH...MARTIN AND ST LUCIE COUNTIES. A CONTINUED SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE INLAND ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THERE IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME STRENGTHENING IN THE SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES INLAND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN STILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE WEST AND SOUTH SIDES OF ISLANDS OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE PATH OF FRANCES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST OF FLORIDA. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD REACH 20 INCHES IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...TO NEAR 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...27.1 N... 79.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 960 MB. OR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM EDT AND 3 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER LAWRENCE |
