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| #7654 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:36 PM 08.Sep.2004) TCMAT4 HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092004 0300Z THU SEP 09 2004 AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. AT 11 PM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR JAMAICA THURSDAY MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO WESTWARD TO PEDERNALES. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA ON THURSDAY. INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 69.1W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 938 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW. 50 KT.......100NE 75SE 35SW 100NW. 34 KT.......140NE 125SE 75SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 140SE 140SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 69.1W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 68.4W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 14.5N 71.0W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 100NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 75SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 15.9N 73.4W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 100NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 17.4N 75.6W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 18.6N 77.5W...NEAR JAMAICA MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.0N 80.0W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 23.5N 82.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 27.0N 82.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 69.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z FORECASTER BEVEN |
