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| #7681 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 AM 09.Sep.2004) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST THU SEP 09 2004 ...IVAN REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE AS IT HEADS IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF JAMAICA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA...FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR JAMAICA LATER THIS MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO WESTWARD TO PEDERNALES. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN. AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.0 WEST OR ABOUT 535 MILES... 860 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH ...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF IVAN SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF ARUBA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND THEN CONTINUE ON ROUTE TOWARD THE AREA NEAR JAMAICA. RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT LEAST 160 MPH...255 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES IVAN A RARE CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ALTHOUGH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY...IVAN COULD STILL INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE THIS MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 921 MB...27.20 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF IVAN. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...13.9 N... 70.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 921 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER STEWART |
