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| #768423 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 PM 07.May.2015) TCDAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 1100 PM EDT THU MAY 07 2015 Satellite imagery shows some increase in deep convection this evening, and the low pressure system off the southeast U.S. coast is now being designated as a subtropical storm. Based on adjusted SFMR winds from a hurricane hunter aircraft that has been investigating the system, the current intensity is set at 40 kt. Data from the aircraft also show that the radius of maximum winds has decreased somewhat from earlier today, but at 80 n mi it is still too large to justify classifying Ana as a tropical cyclone at this time. Since there has been more deep convection occurring near the center over the past several hours, it is becoming more likely that Ana will make the transition into a tropical storm within the next day or so. The storm should remain situated near or over the Gulf Stream for the next 24-36 hours, which would allow for some slight strengthening. Later in the period, as the cyclone approaches the coast, weakening is expected due to the influence of cooler shelf waters. The system has not moved much over the past 24 hours and the initial motion estimate is 350/2. Ana is likely to remain located to the south of a stubborn mid-tropospheric blocking pattern for the next 48 hours or so. Global models show the block breaking down over the weekend, which should allow Ana to move inland over the southeastern U.S. Near the end of the forecast period, the system should accelerate northeastward in the flow ahead of a broad trough. The official track forecast is close to the dynamical model consensus. We appreciate the assistance of the Air Force Hurricane Hunters for providing valuable observations, given their limited resources prior to the start of the regular Atlantic Hurricane Season. Note that the name Ana is pronounced AH-nah. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 31.5N 77.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 31.6N 77.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 31.7N 77.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 31.9N 78.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 32.3N 78.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 33.4N 79.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 12/0000Z 36.1N 77.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 13/0000Z 41.0N 71.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch |
