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| #768776 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:46 AM 09.May.2015) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 1100 AM EDT SAT MAY 09 2015 Deep convection has increased somewhat near the center of the storm, and SFMR observations from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters continue to support an intensity of 50 kt. Ana will be moving over the cooler waters to the northwest of the Gulf Stream later today, and water vapor imagery shows a belt of upper-level northerly flow advancing toward the tropical cyclone. The decreasing sea surface temperatures and increasing northerly shear should cause Ana to weaken as it nears the coast. The official intensity forecast is similar to that from the previous package, and very close to the latest intensity model consensus, IVCN. The initial motion estimate is 320/3. The track forecast reasoning remains basically unchanged from the past few advisories. Global models continue to predict that the blocking mid-level ridge to the north of Ana will shift eastward and weaken over the next couple of days. These models also show a broad trough moving from the central to the eastern U.S. over the next 72 hours or so. This should result in the cyclone turning northward and north-northeastward with a gradual increase in forward speed. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and in good agreement with the latest dynamical model consensus, TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 32.7N 77.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 33.2N 78.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 33.9N 78.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 11/0000Z 34.9N 78.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 11/1200Z 36.1N 77.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 12/1200Z 40.0N 72.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
