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| #768915 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:59 PM 09.May.2015) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 1100 PM EDT SAT MAY 09 2015 Satellite and radar data indicate that Ana's convective structure increased in organization during the late afternoon as banding increased over the northeastern portion of the circulation. However, during the past few hours, the cloud top temperatures have warmed and the convection has decreased in intensity. Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the initial intensity remains at 50 kt, which is in best agreement with uncontaminated SFMR winds. Ana is still forecast to weaken slightly while it moves over cooler waters near the coast overnight. Additional weakening should occur once the center moves onshore Sunday morning. The cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical on Monday before it is absorbed by a larger extratropical low over eastern North America. Radar data and aircraft fixes indicate that Ana is moving north- northwestward, or 320/04. The tropical cyclone should continue moving slowly north-northwestward tonight as a mid-tropospheric ridge to the north of Ana shifts eastward. A broad trough moving into the central and eastern U.S. during the next few days is expected to cause the cyclone or its remnants to turn northward on Sunday and then northeastward at a faster forward speed by Sunday night. The updated NHC track is similar to the previous advisory and is close to the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 33.2N 78.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 33.8N 78.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 24H 11/0000Z 34.7N 78.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 11/1200Z 35.9N 77.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/0000Z 37.8N 75.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Brown |
