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| #7702 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:56 AM 09.Sep.2004) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM AST THU SEP 09 2004 ...IVAN...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...CONTINUES TOWARD JAMAICA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA...FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR JAMAICA LATER THIS MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO WESTWARD TO PEDERNALES. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN. AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE WELL-DEFINED EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.7 WEST OR ABOUT 455 MILES...735 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF IVAN SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF ARUBA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND THEN CONTINUE ON ROUTE TOWARD THE AREA NEAR JAMAICA. IVAN IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 160 MPH...255 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM. AN AIR FORCE PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 919 MB...27.14 INCHES ABOUT TWO HOURS...BUT IT HAS RISEN SLIGHTLY AND IT IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 921 MB...27.20 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF IVAN. REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...14.2 N... 70.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER AVILA |
