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| #7721 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:44 PM 09.Sep.2004) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM AST THU SEP 09 2004 ...NOAA HURRICANE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SHOWS THAT IVAN CONTINUES TO BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS...HEADING FOR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO PERDENALES AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM PALENQUE WESTWARD TO BARAHONA. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA FROM THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS EASTWARD. INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN. AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST OR ABOUT 360 MILES...580 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEARING JAMAICA ON FRIDAY. IVAN IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 923 MB...27.26 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF IVAN. REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...14.8 N... 72.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 923 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER AVILA |
