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| #7740 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 PM 09.Sep.2004) TCMAT4 HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092004 2100Z THU SEP 09 2004 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. AT 5 PM...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO PERDENALES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PALENQUE WESTWARD TO BARAHONA. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA FROM MATANZAS EASTWARD. INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 72.5W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 921 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT.......150NE 75SE 60SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 140SE 140SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 72.5W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 72.0W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 16.1N 74.2W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 50 KT...125NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 75SE 75SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 17.5N 76.2W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 75SE 60SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 18.8N 78.0W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 75SE 70SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 19.7N 79.3W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 75SE 60SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.5N 81.5W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 75SE 60SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 25.0N 83.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 28.0N 83.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 72.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z FORECASTER AVILA |
