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| #7759 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:55 PM 09.Sep.2004) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM AST THU SEP 09 2004 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO PERDENALES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PALENQUE WESTWARD TO BARAHONA. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA FROM MATANZAS EASTWARD. INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN. AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST OR ABOUT 325 MILES...520 KM... SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...21 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEARING JAMAICA ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IVAN REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE EXTRAPOLATED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER WAS 923 MB...27.26 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF IVAN. REPEATING THE 8 PM AST POSITION...15.2 N... 72.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 923 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. IN THE UNITED STATES...HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS ARE BEING ISSUED BY THE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE IN KEY WEST REGARDING EVACUATIONS CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER BEVEN |
