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| #7775 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 PM 09.Sep.2004) TCMAT4 HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092004 0300Z FRI SEP 10 2004 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO PERDENALES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PALENQUE WESTWARD TO BARAHONA. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA FROM MATANZAS EASTWARD. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA FRIDAY MORNING. INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 73.3W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 923 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 35SE 30SW 45NW. 50 KT.......125NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 140SE 140SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 73.3W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 72.8W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 16.5N 74.8W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 17.7N 76.6W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 18.9N 78.3W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 19.9N 79.6W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.0N 81.5W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 25.5N 82.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 29.5N 83.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 73.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z FORECASTER BEVEN |
