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| #778687 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:51 AM 16.Jun.2015) TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BILL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015 100 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 ...TROPICAL STORM BILL MOVING TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.6N 95.3W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSW OF GALVESTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baffin Bay to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bill was located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 95.3 West. Bill is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today. On the forecast track, the center of Bill is expected to make landfall in the warning area along the Texas coast later this morning and move inland over south-central Texas this afternoon and tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible before landfall. Weakening is forecast after the center moves inland later today, and Bill is expected to weaken to a tropical depression tonight. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Bill is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma and 2 to 4 inches over western Louisiana and western Arkansas, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches in eastern Texas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected reach the coast within the warning area in a few hours. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Upper Texas coast...2 to 4 feet Western Louisiana coast...1 to 2 feet The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch |
