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| #778721 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 AM 16.Jun.2015) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015 400 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 Bill has changed little in organization on satellite images over the past several hours. Most of the deep convection is occurring over the eastern semicircle. Radar data show some banding features over the southern portion of the circulation. Surface observations over the western Gulf of Mexico suggest that the intensity remains near 45 kt. Since there is little time remaining before the center reaches the coast, no significant increase in strength is likely before landfall. Weakening will commence later today after the center moves inland over Texas. There are some differences in the evolution of the cyclone over the U.S. in the global models over the next few days. The official forecast shows the circulation dissipating within 5 days, which is a blend of the GFS and ECMWF predictions. The initial motion estimate, 310/11, has changed little from the previous advisory. Bill should be steered mainly by the flow around the southwestern and western periphery of a mid-level high centered over the southeastern U.S. during the next day or two. Thereafter, mid-level westerlies should cause Bill's remnant low to turn northeastward to east-northeastward. Most of the dynamical track models are in good agreement, and the official forecast is closest to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF solutions. Given that Bill has a broad circulation, one should not focus on the exact track, since strong winds and heavy rains are occurring well away from the center. To reiterate, the main hazard from Bill should be heavy rainfall and flooding across portions of eastern Texas over the next day or two. Please see products from your local National Weather Service office for more information on the flood threat. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 27.9N 95.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 29.0N 96.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 17/0600Z 30.6N 97.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/1800Z 32.6N 97.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 18/0600Z 34.5N 96.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 19/0600Z 36.3N 94.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 20/0600Z 39.0N 88.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
