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| #778777 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:57 AM 16.Jun.2015) TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015 1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 ...TROPICAL STORM BILL ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE TEXAS COAST... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF TEXAS... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.2N 96.4W ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM S OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SW OF FREEPORT TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baffin Bay to High Island Texas For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bill was located near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 96.4 West. Bill is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today. The center of Bill is expected to make landfall on Matagorda Island within the next hour or two, and move inland over south-central Texas this afternoon and tonight. Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast after the center moves inland later today, and Bill is expected to weaken to a tropical depression overnight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. During the past hour, a WeatherFlow observing station at Matagorda Bay reported a sustained wind of 41 mph (66 km/h) and a gust to 53 mph (85 km/h). An automated observing station at Port O'Connor also reported a sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h) and a gust to 53 mph (85 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Bill is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma and 2 to 4 inches over western Arkansas and southern Missouri, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches in eastern Texas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning area and will likely continue into the evening. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Upper Texas coast...2 to 4 feet Western Louisiana coast...1 to 2 feet The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible across portions of eastern Texas and far western Louisiana today and tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart |
