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| #778778 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:57 AM 16.Jun.2015) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015 1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 Tropical Storm Bill is nearing the central Texas coast just south of Port O'Connor, and the cyclone should move inland shortly. Although the satellite presentation isn't terribly impressive, NOAA Doppler radar data and SFMR, flight-level, and dropsonde wind reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft support an intensity of 50 kt. After Bill makes landfall, steady weakening will begin as the cyclone moves farther inland over Texas, although the GFS suggests that baroclinic forcing will help maintain the post-tropical remnants as a distinct entity for a few days. The initial motion estimate is 305/09 kt. Bill is expected to move around the southwestern and western periphery of a mid-level high located over the southeastern U.S. during the next day or two. By 48 hours, the cyclone is forecast to get caught up in the mid-latitude westerlies, resulting in a turn and acceleration to the northeastward to east-northeast. The global and regional models are in good agreement on this scenario, and the official forecast is very similar to the previous advisory track and a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models. Although the storm's strongest winds are located very close to the center, tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains are occurring well away from the center. The main hazard from Bill is expected to be heavy rainfall and flooding across portions of eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma over the next day or two. Please see products from your local National Weather Service office for more information on the flood threat. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 28.2N 96.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 29.7N 97.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 31.6N 97.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/0000Z 33.4N 97.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 18/1200Z 34.9N 96.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 19/1200Z 36.8N 92.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 20/1200Z 39.3N 87.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart |
