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| #778817 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:59 PM 16.Jun.2015) TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BILL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015 100 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 ...CENTER OF BILL OVER MATAGORDA ISLAND TEXAS... ...HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO PORTIONS OF TEXAS... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.2N 96.7W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SW OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ENE OF ROCKPORT TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baffin Bay to High Island Texas For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bill was located near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 96.7 West. Bill is inland over Matagorda Island and is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue this afternoon, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest or northwest by tonight. Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening will begin later this afternoon now that the center is inland. Bill is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression overnight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. During the past hour, an automated observing station at Port O'Connor reported a sustained wind of 41 mph (67 km/h) and a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on reconnaissance data is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Bill is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma and 2 to 4 inches over western Arkansas and southern Missouri, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches in eastern Texas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning area and will likely continue into the evening. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Upper Texas coast...2 to 4 feet Western Louisiana coast...1 to 2 feet The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Recent reports indicate that the water level at Port Lavaca, Texas, is about 3 feet above normal. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible across portions of eastern Texas and far western Louisiana today and tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart |
