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| #778858 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 PM 16.Jun.2015) TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015 400 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 ...BILL BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... ...FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.4N 96.8W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM W OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM WSW OF FREEPORT TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Port Aransas and north of San Luis Pass. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bill was located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 96.8 West. Bill is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue tonight, followed by a turn toward the north on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Bill is expected to become a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center, mainly to the northeast and east of the center. During the past hour, a wind gust to 41 mph (67 km/h) was measured at Palacios and Galveston, Texas. Several offshore oil rigs continue to report sustained tropical-storm-force winds. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Bill is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma and 2 to 4 inches over western Arkansas and southern Missouri, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches in eastern Texas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning area to the northeast and east of the center. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Upper Texas coast...2 to 4 feet Western Louisiana coast...1 to 2 feet The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Recent reports indicate that the water level at Port Lavaca, Texas, is about 3.5 feet above normal. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur over parts of southeast and east central Texas and western Louisiana tonight through early Wednesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart |
