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| #778941 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 PM 16.Jun.2015) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015 1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 Bill has continued to weaken while it moves farther inland over Texas. The initial intensity is estimated at 35 kt, but surface observations indicate that these winds are confined to a few rainbands over water to the southeast of the center. Because most of the circulation is already inland, additional weakening is anticipated, and Bill is expected to become a tropical depression Wednesday morning, and a remnant low on Thursday. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the north or 350 degrees at 10 kt, and this is based primarily on NWS Doppler Radar data. Bill is forecast to move northward for the next day or so around the western periphery of high pressure centered over the southeastern United States. After that time, the cyclone or its remnants will move toward the northeast while embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. Most likely the system will become absorbed by a front by day 4. The main hazard from Bill is expected to be primarily heavy rainfall and flooding across portions of eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma over the next day or two. Please see products from your local National Weather Service office for more information on the flood threat. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 29.5N 97.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 17/1200Z 31.0N 97.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/0000Z 33.2N 97.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/1200Z 34.8N 96.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 19/0000Z 35.5N 94.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 20/0000Z 37.5N 90.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 21/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ Forecaster Avila |
