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| #7856 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 10.Sep.2004) TCMAT4 HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092004 2100Z FRI SEP 10 2004 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE. A HURRICANE WATCH IS EFFECT FOR CUBA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA FROM CABO CRUZ TO SANTIAGO DE CUBA. INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 76.2W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 937 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 25SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT.......150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 180SE 180SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 76.2W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 75.8W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 17.7N 77.5W NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 18.8N 78.7W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 19.9N 79.8W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.3N 81.1W NEARING CUBA MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 24.7N 82.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT...175NE 90SE 90SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 29.0N 83.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 34.0N 83.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 76.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z FORECASTER AVILA |
