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| #787270 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 PM 14.Jul.2015) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032015 500 PM AST TUE JUL 14 2015 Recent visible satellite imagery indicates Claudette's circulation has become shallow and disorganized, with the low-level circulation completely decoupled from the convection to the east-northeast. An uncontaminated ASCAT pass at 1430 UTC observed winds of 42 kt in the southeast quadrant, which indicates that Claudette has maintained its intensity longer than expected. Assuming some weakening has occurred since the ASCAT pass, the initial intensity estimate is set at 40 kt. Further weakening should occur over the next 12 hours as the system moves over progressively colder SSTs and transitions to an extratropical cyclone. Global models show the system opening up into a trough in 24 hours and the official forecast calls for dissipation by that time. The initial motion estimate is 050/18 kt. Claudette is forecast to continue toward the north-northeast while it rotates around a large deep-layer cyclone over eastern Canada. The official track forecast is close to the dynamical model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 42.5N 59.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 44.8N 57.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain |
