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| #7879 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 PM 10.Sep.2004) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI SEP 10 2004 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN NEARING JAMAICA...COULD REACH CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT. A HURRICANE WATCH IS EFFECT FOR CUBA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH... AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA FROM CABO CRUZ TO SANTIAGO DE CUBA. HURRICANE WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA ON SATURDAY...AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CUBA. INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS SOUTHERN FLORIDA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM...SOUTH OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE ON FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE EYE OF IVAN NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF JAMAICA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE EYE WILL THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN TO NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES IVAN AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. SOME STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IVAN COULD REGAIN CATEGORY 5 STATUS BEFORE THE EYE REACHES JAMAICA. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. AMATEUR RADIO REPORTS INDICATE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OVER LARGE PARTS OF JAMAICA. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 920 MB...27.17 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF IVAN. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...17.5 N... 76.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 920 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN |
