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| #7899 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 AM 11.Sep.2004) TCMAT4 HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092004 0900Z SAT SEP 11 2004 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CABO CRUZ TO CIENFUEGOS. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA FROM SATIAGO DE CUBA TO CIENFUEGOS. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FOR HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 78.0W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 923 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 180SE 180SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 78.0W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 77.6W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 18.3N 79.0W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 19.3N 80.1W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 20.6N 81.4W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.0N 82.5W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 25.9N 83.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 30.5N 84.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 36.0N 83.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 78.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z FORECASTER LAWRENCE |
