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| #7901 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:58 AM 11.Sep.2004) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT SEP 11 2004 ...EYE OF IVAN PASSING JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CABO CRUZ TO CIENFUEGOS. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA FROM SATIAGO DE CUBA TO CIENFUEGOS. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FOR HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST. THIS POSITION IS JUST SOUTH OF THE ISLAND OF JAMAICA AND ABOUT 70 MILES... 110 KM...SOUTH OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA. AFTER A WOBBLE TOWARD THE WEST...IVAN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...IVAN SHOULD MOVE NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED...BUT IVAN COULD BECOME STRONGER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 923 MB...27.26 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF IVAN. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...17.5 N... 78.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 923 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER LAWRENCE |
