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| #7933 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:58 AM 11.Sep.2004) TCDAT4 HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT SEP 11 2004 SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT IVAN CONTINUES TO BE WELL-ORGANIZED WITH A DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY VERY DEEP CONVECTION. AN ELONGATED UPPER-LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS IS DISRUPTING THE OUTFLOW A LITTLE BIT IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE OUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED ELSEWHERE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 125 KNOTS ASSUMING SOME WEAKENING DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH JAMAICA. A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE AVAILABLE WHEN ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE REACHES THE AREA LATER TODAY. THE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER AN AREA OF HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THEREFORE IVAN COULD GAIN SOME STRENGTH BEFORE REACHING CUBA. THE AVERAGE MOTION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS BEEN BASICALLY WESTWARD...PARALLELING THE SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. THIS FEATURE MAY KEEP THE HURRICANE ON A SLOW WEST TO WEST-NORTHEAST TRACK FOR A LITTLE LONGER. THEREAFTER...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE BAHAMAS AND A WEAKNESS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN CALLS FOR A GRADUAL TURN OF THE HURRICANE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH 72 HOURS. A GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT WESTWARD BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HEAVILY WEIGHTED ON THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/1500Z 17.9N 78.7W 125 KT 12HR VT 12/0000Z 18.5N 79.8W 135 KT 24HR VT 12/1200Z 19.6N 81.0W 135 KT 36HR VT 13/0000Z 21.0N 82.0W 135 KT 48HR VT 13/1200Z 22.8N 83.0W 125 KT OVER WESTERN CUBA 72HR VT 14/1200Z 27.0N 84.5W 115 KT 96HR VT 15/1200Z 31.5N 83.9W 65 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 16/1200Z 36.0N 82.0W 25 KT...INLAND |
