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| #7940 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:45 PM 11.Sep.2004) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT SAT SEP 11 2004 ...IVAN MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CUBA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE EYE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES...70 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF JAMAICA AND 170 MILES...270 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN. IVAN HAS BEEN DRIFTING BETWEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IVAN SHOULD RESUME A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR LATER TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...IVAN SHOULD BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED...BUT IVAN COULD BECOME STRONGER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY ESTIMATED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 921 MB...27.18 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER TODAY. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 20 FEET... LOCALLY HIGHER...ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF IVAN. REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...18.0 N... 79.0 W. EXPECTED MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 921 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA |
