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| #7954 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:44 PM 11.Sep.2004) TCMAT4 HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092004 2100Z SAT SEP 11 2004 ...CORRECTED FORECAST 50 KT WIND RADII... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CUBA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 79.3W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 914 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 145 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 180SE 180SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 79.3W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 79.0W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 18.7N 80.5W MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 20.0N 82.0W MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.5N 83.1W...NEARING WESTERN CUBA MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 23.1N 84.0W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 26.5N 85.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 31.0N 85.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 36.0N 83.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 79.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z FORECASTER AVILA |
