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| #796485 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 AM 19.Aug.2015) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015 500 AM AST WED AUG 19 2015 The cloud pattern has not changed significantly during the past few hours. The convection near the center has been intermittent, while a band of thunderstorm has been developing on the eastern semicircle. The outflow to the west appears to be fair. Microwave data do not show any significant increase in organization of the inner core at this time. The initial intensity has been kept at 45 kt since the subjective Dvorak T-numbers have not changed. SHIPS model indicate that Danny will continue to be embedded within an environment of very light shear, and only dry air appears to be the unfavorable factor for strengthening. In fact, the SHIPS rapid intensification index RI continues to be high, but not as much as it was indicated in the previous run. Most of the models call for intensification during the next 3 to 4 days, but none is as aggressive as the LGEM model, which makes Danny and intense hurricane by the end of the forecast period. The official forecast is closer to the consensus, and calls for a more modest strengthening with some slight decrease in intensity as Danny approaches the Lesser Antilles. The center is difficult to locate on infrared images, and there are some indications that Danny could be moving a little faster. Given the uncertainties of the location of storm, and assuming that the center is still under the convective canopy, the best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west, but still at 12 kt. The persistent subtropical ridge over the Atlantic will likely continue to steer Danny on a general west to west-northwest track during the next five days. The guidance envelope shifted northward in the last run, but the ECMWF still favors a more westward track. The NHC forecast was shifted a little bit to the north, following the multi-model consensus, and lies between the GFS and the ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 11.3N 40.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 11.7N 41.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 12.2N 43.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 12.6N 44.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 13.2N 46.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 14.5N 50.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 15.5N 54.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 16.5N 59.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila |
