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| #796901 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 PM 20.Aug.2015) TCDAT4 HURRICANE DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015 500 PM AST THU AUG 20 2015 The overall cloud pattern of Danny has continued to improve with the development of a tiny eye within a small central dense overcast, as well as some outer convective banding features. The initial intensity of 70 kt is based on a blend of consensus Dvorak satellite intensity estimates of T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and SAB and an NHC objective Dvorak classification of T4.5/77 kt using the pinhole eye scene type. Satellite data continue to indicate that Danny is an unusually small tropical cyclone. The initial motion is 295/09 kt. NHC model guidance continues to be in good agreement on Danny moving west-northwestward for the next 48 hours or so, followed by a turn toward the west thereafter as a weakness in the subtropical ridge along 60W fills in. As the ridge builds westward to the north of Danny, the cyclone is expected to accelerate and move a little faster during the 72-120 hour period. The official forecast track is essentially just an update of the previous advisory and lies close to the consensus model TVCN. Danny's compact size makes it subject to significant fluctuations in strength, both up and down, and such fluctuations are difficult, at best, to forecast. Low-shear conditions and SSTs near 28 deg C are expected to continue along the forecast track for the next 24 hours or so, which should allow for some further strengthening during that time. Although Danny continues to be surrounded by dry mid-level air, the recent development of outer banding features noted in satellite images suggests that entrainment of this dry air might not be as much of an inhibiting factor as it has been during the past couple of days. However, by 36 hours and beyond, the 850-200 mb vertical wind shear is expected to increase from a southerly to southwesterly direction, which should induce weakening, especially as Danny approaches or moves through the Leeward Island. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies close to the IVCN consensus model. Both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft will be investigating Danny Friday afternoon, and that data will provide a better estimate of the hurricane's structure and strength. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 13.0N 45.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 13.6N 46.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 14.4N 48.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 15.0N 50.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 15.5N 52.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 16.2N 57.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 24/1800Z 17.2N 62.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 25/1800Z 18.0N 67.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart |
